Summary:
Until at least the middle of the next decade, global growth is likely to slow to approximately 3 percent per year on average—a rate somewhat below the average of the last two decades. A recovery in advanced economies will be more than offset by a gradual slowdown in emerging ones as they mature, with the net result that global growth will slow. But the biggest risk ahead for the global economy is not this slower overall growth in output but a slowdown in average output per capita, which will determine how fast living standards can be supported and raised.Main results:
- Global growth is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2012, then accelerate somewhat to 3.6 percent from 2013-2016, and then show a further slowdown to 2.7 percent from 2017-2025. At 3 percent, on average, global growth will still be somewhat higher than the period 1980-1995 but between half and a full percentage point below the growth rate from 1995-2008.
- Advanced economy growth is expected to slow down from an already meager 1.6 percent in 2011 to 1.3 percent in 2012. For 2013-2016, the outlook suggests some recovery in advanced economies, bringing these countries back to the pre-recession growth trend of a little more than 2 percent.
- In 2012 emerging economies will slow in growth by 0.7 percentage points on average, going from 6.3 percent growth in 2011 to 5.6 percent in 2012, partly as a result of slower export growth and partly because several of them have been growing above trend. From 2017-2025 emerging and developing countries are projected to grow at 3.3 percent. Many economies will begin to show signs of maturing, at which point the rapid catch-up growth abates.
- The greatest challenge for the global economy in this slow growth environment is to raise productivity without losing job opportunities for the millions who are looking for reasonably paid jobs to support their living standards. The growth rate of per capita income globally has been around 2.5 percent since the beginning of the century but sometime between 2017 and 2025, this rate will fall below 2 percent. In contrast to the past half century, that slowdown will also be accompanied by slower growth in population.
Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product, 2012-2025 (January 2012)
*EU-15 refers to states that joined the
European Union before 2004.
**Other advanced economies include Canada, Switzerland, Norway,
Israel, Iceland, Cyprus, Korea, Australia, Taiwan Province of China,
Hong Kong,
Singapore, New Zealand and Malta.
***CIS is Commonwealth of Independent States which includes all former
republics of the Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic states.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, January 2012.
Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product, 1996-2012 (January 2012)
| 1996 - 2005 | 2006 - 2011 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution of World Output 2011 | GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth**** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth**** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth**** | Projected GDP Growth | Contribution to World GDP growth**** | |
| US | 18.6% | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| EU-15* | 17.9% | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Japan | 5.7% | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| Other advanced** | 8.2% | 3.8 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| Advanced Economies | 50.4% | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| China | 15.8% | 8.1 | 0.6 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 1.2 |
| India | 5.7% | 6.5 | 0.2 | 8.3 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 0.4 |
| Other developing Asia | 5.1% | 3.9 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| Latin America | 7.8% | 2.8 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| Middle East | 3.5% | 4.5 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 0.1 |
| Africa | 3.3% | 4.5 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 3.9% | 3.8 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Russia and other CIS*** | 4.4% | 4.0 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| Emerging Market and Developing Economies | 49.6% | 4.9 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 |
| World | 100.0% | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | ||||
*EU-15 refers to states that joined the European
Union before 2004.
**Other advanced economies include Canada, Switzerland, Norway, Israel,
Iceland, Cyprus, Korea, Australia, Taiwan Province of China, Hong Kong,
Singapore,
New Zealand and Malta.
***CIS is Commonwealth of Independent States which includes all former
republics of the Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic states.
****The percentage contributions to global growth are computed as log
differences and therefore do not exactly add up to the percentage growth
rate for the world economy.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, January 2012 (https://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm)
Comparison of Base Scenario with Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios, 2012 - 2025 (January 2012)
| 2012 - 2016 | 2017 - 2025 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth in Optimistic Scenario | GDP Growth in Base Scenario | GDP Growth in Pessimistic Scenario | GDP Growth in Optimistic Scenario | GDP Growth in Base Scenario | GDP Growth in Pessimistic Scenario | Distribution of World Output 2025 | |
| US | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 18.3% |
| EU-15* | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 16.1% |
| Japan | 2.3 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4.9% |
| Other advanced** | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 7.8% |
| Advanced Economies | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 47.2% |
| China | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 21.8% |
| India | 7.7 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 8.4% |
| Other developing Asia | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 4.3% |
| Latin America | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 7.4% |
| Middle East | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.7% |
| Africa | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.7% |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.7% |
| Russia and other CIS*** | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.9% |
| Emerging Market and Developing Economies | 6.5 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 52.8% |
| World | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 100.0% |
*EU-15 refers to states that joined the European
Union before 2004.
**Other advanced economies include Canada, Switzerland, Norway, Israel,
Iceland, Cyprus, Korea, Australia, Taiwan Province of China, Hong Kong,
Singapore,
New Zealand and Malta.
***CIS is Commonwealth of Independent States which includes all former
republics of the Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic states.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, January 2012
About The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2012 provides projections for the output growth of the world economy for 2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2025, including 12 major regions and about 50 advanced and emerging economies. Most forecasters only focus on the next year or two, while the International Monetary Fund provides an outlook that projects six years ahead. By extending projections based on a growth accounting model, looking at the contributions of labor, capital and productivity, over more than a decade, The Conference Board outlook can identify underlying structural changes in the economy. For detailed methodology, click here.Methodological Notes
- Short-term (2012) projections are based on The Conference Board U.S. Economic Forecast, The Conference Board Leading Economic indexes (LEIs) for 11 countries/regions, and secondary sources, such as the World Economic Outlook (International Monetary Fund), the Economic Outlook (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), European Commission and Congressional Budget Office.
- Medium-term (2013-2016) and long-term (2017-2025) projections are based on a growth accounting model, looking at the contributions of labor, capital and total factor productivity to growth. Growth in labor is approximated by the growth in working age population. Capital growth is derived from growth of working age population, and the past period performance in investment over GDP ratio, total factor productivity growth, capital deepening and depreciation. Total factor productivity growth is determined by the past period performance in TFP growth and labor productivity level.
- The projected GDP growth, based on the growth accounting framework, is considered relative to measured trend growth of an economy. Our optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are based on the economy’s deviation from the trend growth and the growth rate needed to close the output gap.
- The calculation of measures of regional and global GDP growth requires levels of GDP to weigh the growth rates of individual countries and regions by their size of GDP. The country and region GDP weights are current weights, which are the average for the beginning and the end of each period, and which are benchmarked on purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP from Penn World Table 7.0.
Amazing write-up! You always have good humor in your Blog's , So much fun and easy to read! Zero Balance Account Opening Instantly
ReplyDelete